Imminence and the Pearl Harbor Dilemma
“When you see a rattlesnake poised to strike, you do not wait until he has struck before you crush him.” —Franklin D. Roosevelt, September 11, 1941 On November 26, 1941, a Japanese carrier force slipped out of port and headed east across the Pacific under strict orders to attack the U.S. Navy fleet at Pearl Harbor. We know how that turned out, but suppose the United States had learned that the Japanese fleet had sailed and had intelligence that disclosed its mission before the Japanese struck on December 7. Would Washington have been justified in hitting them first? In hindsight, the answer is yes, but what about when that question mattered most: before the attack? More than a century earlier, a similar question helped shape the principle of self-defense in international law. In 1837, British forces crossed into American territory and destroyed the American steamer Caroline , which had been supplying Canadian rebels. The incident—known as the Caroline Affair—created a dip...